World Cup · Group Stage - 1
Mexico2 – 0South Africa
jue, 11 de jun de 2026, 01:00 p.m. (CDMX) · Estadio Azteca, Mexico CityRetrospectiva · calculado antes del kickoff
PolymarketSin vincular
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Veredicto · local / empate / visita
Panel72 / 20 / 8
72%
20%
Modelo90 / 9 / 1
90%
Mercado67 / 22 / 12
67%
22%
Over 2.546%Ambos anotan34%
Desacuerdo
8/100
Consenso sólidoDe dónde sale el 72% de victoria local
Panel IA72%Consenso de 3 votantes, agregado por pool logarítmico ponderado por confianza.
Modelo Dixon-Coles90%La predicción estadística local, evidencia primaria del Cuantitativo.
Mercado67%Probabilidad implícita en las cuotas de referencia, con el margen de la casa retirado.
Marcadores · probabilidad
SOU 0123
Filas: goles del local; columnas: goles del visitante. El 2-0 encabeza con 16%; estos 16 marcadores concentran el 85% del total.MEX 0
0-09.3%
0-12.4%
0-21.0%
0-30.2%
1
1-014.1%
1-19.8%
1-22.1%
1-30.4%
2
2-016.1%
2-18.3%
2-22.2%
2-30.4%
3
3-011.0%
3-15.7%
3-21.5%
3-30.3%
El Cuantitativo
anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6Local 90%
Local90%Empate10%Visita1%
- · empateModel diagnostics are severely compromised: only 8 matches used and the model failed to converge, making all probability estimates unreliable.
- ◂ localDespite convergence failure, the model strongly favours Mexico at home, driven by a high lambdaHome of 2.64 vs an extremely low muAway of 0.129, producing a 90% home win probability.
- ▾ underBTTS probability is very low at 11.6% and South Africa's expected goals are near-zero, suggesting a clean sheet is the most likely outcome, though this rests on a non-converged model with sparse data.
El Analista de Mercado
openai/gpt-5.5Local 67%
Local67%Empate22%Visita12%
- ◂ localThe market makes Mexico a clear favourite, so I anchor to the home-win side.
- ▾ underThe total-goals market leans moderately toward under 2.5 goals rather than a high-scoring game.
- ▾ underBoth-teams-to-score pricing supports a lower-scoring or one-sided scoring profile.
El Scout de Contexto
google/gemini-3.5-flashLocal 55%
Local55%Empate25%Visita20%
- ◂ localMexico benefits from a substantial advantage playing the Group Stage opener at Estadio Azteca with a fully available squad.
- · empateThe historical head-to-head record consists of only one match from 2010, which is too outdated to have predictive power.
- ▾ underAs this is the opening game of the tournament with both teams starting at zero points, a cautious approach is expected to avoid an early defeat.